Our Perspective on a President Who Has Not (Yet) Acknowledged His Electoral Defeat

Last Friday, following a series of final twists that hardly bolstered his authority, Emmanuel Macron reluctantly appointed François Bayrou to succeed to Michel Barnier as Prime Minister. Although he had announced as early as December 5th that appointing the new head of Government was imminent, the subsequent week of consultations in various formats shows that he has not given up on retaining the upper hand and controlling the policies carried out by the executive branch. By selecting a figure coming from what Michel Barnier once called the “common core,” the President of the Republic has taken the risk of a crisis in the near future, one that could potentially lead to institutional paralysis and, perhaps, as Jean-Luc Mélenchon anticipates with some relish, to his own resignation. Let’s attempt to explain this choice.

The results of last July’s legislative elections did not yield the clarity Emmanuel Macron had hoped for when he dissolved the National Assembly. That chamber is now more divided than ever, split into three blocs of varying cohesion and discipline. Though the election of the Speaker hinted at the possibility of a narrow relative majority—formed by the alliance of groups that have supported him since 2017, the republican center-right, and various moderate lawmakers—E Macron, rather than turning to a representative of the Nouveau Front Populaire, opted for a member of Les Républicains. He gambled Marine Le Pen and the Rassemblement National group would refrain from triggering an early no-confidence vote. That gamble was lost within barely three months, for a range of different reasons.

Given this failure, Emmanuel Macron should have returned to the main lessons of the legislative elections. Although the first round had placed the Rassemblement Nationa (RN)l well ahead, the second round saw a majority of French voters rally behind the Front Républicain—driven and dominated by the Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP)—to prevent Jordan Bardella (RN) from becoming Prime Minister. The logical conclusion would have been to appoint, if not a leader from the NFP, at least a figure close to it, someone capable of taking advantage of the differences in approach and the divisions within its four main components. Since the Rassemblement National proved itself an unreliable “objective ally,” and the so-called « common core » turned out to be anything but solid, a different approach was needed—one that looked to the left.

But this strategic shift required acknowledging two basic truths.

First, the policies pursued by the future government could not simply be a thinly disguised continuation of those implemented since 2017—regardless of one’s personal regret—when two-thirds of the electorate rejected them less than six months ago. In today’s divided National Assembly, no single party or coalition can hope to implement its entire agenda without compromise. And those compromises must reflect the voters’ choices. Supporters of the previous administration must accept that what they accomplished can, at least in part, be unraveled.

Second, the President of the Republic must admit that, lacking a stable and sufficient parliamentary majority, he no longer has the power—beyond soverenity affairs matters —to unilaterally determine and further more implement national policy. This is an inevitable consequence of the Constitution’s hybrid nature : it leans towards a presidential regime when parliamentary majorities align with the Élysée, and towards a parliamentary one when the President no longer has a majority in the Assembly. The three cohabitations of 1986, 1993, and 1997 made this clear. Yet, everything Emmanuel Macron has undertaken in domestic policy since last July highlights his refusal to (so far) accept this reality.

Under these conditions, François Bayrou will need great skills and power of persuasion to last longer than his predecessors while actually governing and passing the measures the current economic and financial situation calls for. Convincing Emmanuel Macron to shift from the “whatever the cost” mindset to a “whatever my personal misgivings” approach will not be the easiest challenge.

Eric Giuily, President of CLAI
Raphaël Caors, Senior Consultant
Chloë Loyen, Consultant