From AI to Ukraine: Is Emmanuel Macron Emerging from Political Limbo ?
Since the disappointing outcome of the 2022 legislative elections, Emmanuel Macron has been striving to regain momentum in his second term. Be that as it may, as often happens in times of crisis, each of his initiatives has not only failed to revive his standing but has exacerbated his popularity’s and credibility’s erosion. The replacement of Élisabeth Borne in January 2024, the aftermath of the dissolution of the National Assembly in the wake of the European election setback, mark pivotal moments in his political ‘descent into hell’, a crisis that transcends mere media perception. At the same time, France is grappling with an economic and social crisis compounded by an unprecedented level of political instability under the Fifth Republic. Amidst this sombre landscape, February 2025 could herald the dawn of a resurgence, as the President pivots from domestic affairs to reassert his stature on the international stage.
By convening representatives from over 100 nations, including heads of state and government, esteemed experts, and influential private sector leaders, on the 10th and 11th of February, Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed his stature as a statesman of global reach. In assuming this role, he not only demonstrated his willingness to tackle pressing international challenges but also positioned himself as a leader capable of transcending domestic turbulence. With a keen eye on the broader geopolitical landscape, he sought to offer the French people a renewed sense of direction while amplifying their voice within the concert of nations. The partnership with India, a key yet non-aligned player, to promote artificial intelligence as an ethical and collaborative technology undeniably left a strong impression. Staying true to his political DNA, Macron also reaffirmed his position as the champion of the “start-up nation” by announcing €109 billion in investments from global AI players into France. Embracing the principles of 2.0 communication and remaining as disruptive as ever, he did not hesitate to take a provocative approach. In a speech shared on his official Instagram account on the 10th of February, he featured AI-generated videos of himself, signalling a bold engagement with the very technology he aims to regulate.
Albeit it was Emmanuel Macron’s swift and decisive response to President Trump’s initial manoeuvres regarding the war in Ukraine that, at least for the time being, has drawn a close to his political retreat. By orchestrating a summit on the 17th of February, Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed his presence at the helm of European diplomacy. This gathering, which convened the heads of government from seven European nations alongside the President of the European Council, the President of the European Commission, and the NATO Secretary General, underscored his intent to reclaim a position of influence on the continental stage. Just two days later, he reinforced this initiative by hosting an expanded meeting, bringing an additional 11 countries into the fold. In doing so, Macron signalled his determination to reassert France’s leadership in shaping Europe’s political and strategic trajectory. A role he had once commanded, though with fluctuating success, between 2017 and 2022.
Thanks to these initiatives and first European leader to be received in Washington by President Trump, he has positioned himself as the continent’s voice in transatlantic relations. In this pivotal role, he pursued two overarching objectives. First, he sought to secure a firm U.S. commitment to providing security guarantees for Ukraine within the framework of a potential peace agreement. Second, he aimed to lay the groundwork for a truly autonomous European defence policy by ensuring that the direct engagement of several European nations on the ground would serve as an initial step towards greater strategic independence. Through this diplomatic manoeuvre, Macron not only reaffirmed his leadership but also underscored Europe’s growing resolve to define its own security priorities. This unfolds at a critical juncture, as Germany ushers in a new chancellor who has declared “genuine independence from the United States” as a foremost priority. A revival of the Franco-German partnership, historically the cornerstone of European integration, yet one that must still navigate the complexities of negotiation over Berlin’s forthcoming grand coalition.
Yet, for all its undeniable significance, this resurgence remains precarious. On the domestic front, the dissolution of the National Assembly has given rise to a volatile political landscape, one that precludes the President from reasserting a position of dominance. It is difficult to see how another dissolution or a referendum, whose outcomes would be, at best, ambiguous and, more likely, highly unpredictable, could change this situation. More critically, in the immediate term, Macron’s standing remains contingent upon the outcome of negotiations between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump over Ukraine, an external reliance that offers little in the way of stability or assurance.
Eric Giuily, President
Marguerite Pasquier‐Hedde, Account Director
Alexane Lirzin, Consultant